Nagasaki University / Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)
Establishment of an Early-warning System for Infectious Diseases in Southern Africa Incorporating Climate Predictions
Fighting against Infectious Diseases with a Warning System Integrating Different Areas of Research
Establishment of an early-warning system for infectious diseases in Southern Africa, incorporating climate predictions
In Southern Africa, where poverty is prominent, lives are threatened by infectious diseases. Recent climate changes have increased the possible risks of infectious disease outbreaks in unexpected regions and on scales previously unknown. This project is developing an infectious disease outbreak prediction model that incorporates the influences of a variety of environmental factors into the climate change models in order to predict the outbreaks of malaria, pneumonia, and diarrheal diseases such as cholera that are predominantly affected by climate conditions. The ultimate aim of the research is to build an early warning system that can be applied in implementing effective countermeasures for infectious disease.
Future application of the system for areas other than Southern Africa!
By effectively utilizing the informative resources available to government institutions based on the early warning system, the number of people suffering from diseases can be reduced. The predictions can be applied through approaches involving appropriate preventative measures during warning periods and in high-risk regions (including implementation of countermeasures, preparation of medicines and diagnostic kits for an early response). In the future, the system can also be expected to be developed and deployed in areas outside Southern Africa.
With no respect for national borders, climate change and changes in weather conditions can affect the occurrence of vector mosquitoes.
The new model improved the predictions of sea surface temperature and climate variability
The prediction of disease outbreak allows effective control measures such as insecticide spray